Crude Oil Prices

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices are the most important commodity prices in the world. They receive a tremendous amount of attention from just about every type of investor. No matter if you are managing your own small investment portfolio or managing billions of dollars in a highly leveraged hedge fund it is likely that you will be following crude oil prices.

The careful attention that crude oil prices receive is understandable given that the products derived from crude oil are the life blood of the modern world’s industrial economy. Crude oil is the raw material material input to products, such as gasoline, jet fuel, and plastics, that are essential to a modern way of life. The price of crude oil is quickly reflected in the price of these many products. It’s no secret that the availability and price of crude oil is something that one way or the other affects nearly every human being on planet earth.

Crude oil is a finite natural resource with current supply and demand factors closely balanced. The future prospect for both the availability and pricing for crude oil looks to be ominous indeed. As countries like the United States continue with wasteful energy habits, and rapidly developing nations like China and India add more automobiles, larger houses, aircraft, and oil dependent uses of all kinds to their development mix, the pressure of increased demand against declining oil production around the world will cause a huge permanent increase in crude oil prices.

We have probably already entered a situation known as peak oil. Peak oil does not mean that we are completely running out of oil but it does mean that the “easy to get” oil has already been discovered and placed into production and that the oil that is left will be increasingly expensive to find, drill for, and bring into production. Production from the major oil fields in the world, like Cantarell in Mexico and Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, are now in irreversible decline.

The discovery of new large oil fields that offer the prospect of producing oil at low prices per barrel is remote. It is now just a matter of time before the imbalance between supply and demand factors lead to extraordinarily high prices for crude oil. That time is probably closer than we care to think.

The current relatively low prices for crude oil is more a reflection of the deleveraging of financial assets around the world than of supply and demand considerations. Any minor disruption in oil supplies, especially if coupled with even a modest increase in demand, could quickly send crude oil prices to new all time highs above $147 a barrel.

Posted in Crude OIl on Jan 5th, 2009, 10:31 pm by taipan   

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