Currency and Commodity Trading Strategies, Commodity Traders Tips for Gold and Crude Oil Currency Pairs
As a keen trader if you study currency and commodity trading you will discover that it relates to the currencies of countries where commodities contribute a significant proportion of economic output as well as exports. These could be metals like copper, or crude oil, or agricultural products like sugar and coffee.
Clearly the currencies of a number of countries around the world could be called commodity currencies on this very broad definition. For the purposes of currency and commodity trading, the term relates to three major country currencies where a significant contribution to exports comes from commodities.
Movements in global commodity prices affect the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar currencies, with the Australian dollar reflecting gold price movements strongly, while the crude oil price seems to have a close relationship with movements in the Canadian dollar (CAD). Though it is not linked to any particular commodity like the other two currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) or “Kiwi” shows a general correlation with price changes in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index.
So what happens when the gold price strengthens? We will see a similar rise in the Australian dollar in the AUD/USD pair (the Aussie), as all currencies trade in pairs. This means the Australian dollar is rising against the dollar, conversely the US dollar is weakening in that pair. When investors see economic uncertainties such as rising inflation or a recession, they may move into gold for its perceived safe haven status. Currency and commodity traders also look to the yellow metals link to the Aussie, possibly trading this pair as a proxy for gold.
Australia gets a significant percentage of its output from commodities and over 50 per cent of its exports are from this source, with gold, other precious metals and copper playing a big role. Take a look at trading data to see the strongly positive correlation of the Aussie and gold. This means a switched-on trader can either trade gold futures or an ETF, or gain exposure to AUD/USD in the spot forex market.
Observers of the dynamics in currency and commodity trading will be aware of the major role played by Canada as a global commodities producer, particularly in its role as a key producer of crude oil. As such you will see a strong inverse link between crude oil price changes and the movement of the USD/CAD (the Loonie) pair.
Canada is a major oil supplier to its neighbour the USA, which in turn consumes more oil than any other economy. A low crude oil price would be bad news for the Canadian dollar, though positive for both the US economy and US dollar. Any trader bearish about the outlook for crude oil prices could as a proxy go short the Canadian dollar in the forex market, instead of going short Nymex crude or buying inverse ETF’s in oil.
Looking at all three of these currency pairs gives currency and commodity trading followers a real opportunity to choose spot forex trading as a way of capturing the movements in the commodity markets, either for gold, crude oil or across the whole spectrum of commodities. There is always a bull market in currency trading, it just depends which currency in the pair you are long or short.
The author, William Davies, is a keen observer of commodities and writes for an informational online resource on trading commodities. Learn more about how you could gain from currency and commodity trading in the world markets.
